When we talk about horse racing, specifically on big events like the Kentucky Derby, knowing which horse is the favourite is very important for your betting strategy.

Considering the previous Kentucky Derby races where the favorite horse won in six out of eight Derby Days, following expert advice can really help you earn more money. So, how to indicate which horse has the best chance of winning the Kentucky Derby 2022 and is therefore considered a favorite?

Well, expert horse racing bettors use many metrics that point out the horse that has the best chance to win. If you have access to such information you can use it to your advantage or create your own strategy for predicting the favorite on your own.

Here are some indicators that can help point out the potential winner in the Kentucky Derby.

Analyzing Previous Data For All Contenders

Horse racing is a sport where many things need to be aligned for a horse to win a race. On top of that, many outside factors can impact the outcome of a race, that cannot be controlled by the horse or the jockey.

With that said, here are some factors that expert bettors consider when choosing which horse is the favorite for winning the race.

Previous Race Results

The starting point of every expert analysis is browsing through the horse’s previous appearances. Knowing the place that the horse finished in previous races will indicate the “form” of the horse which is often considered the most important thing in horse racing.

With that said, it is worth mentioning that experts also keep an eye on the date of previous races. If the last race is a year ago, this won’t give you any significant information since a long time has passed.

The key here is to look for patterns. If a horse consistently places well, especially in two races in a row, it is a good indicator that the horse has a high probability that can finish a high place in a race.

Days Since the Last Race

We mentioned that the date of the previous race is important, but it is important to know which are the indicators that the horse is in a good form. Experts have a way of analyzing previous appearances from horses and came out with a sweet spot of 30-60 days to be the perfect duration from the previous race.
If a horse has been racing a few days before the event, it might suggest that the horse is tired, and if it has been a long time since the last race, it might suggest that the horse is out of shape.

Experts also take this a step further and analyze how many times the horse has started in the past 2 years. The sweet spot is anywhere from 45-60 days between races, which means that the horse should have appeared in 1 race over 2 year period. This is often a favorable factor.

Distance and Course Wins

In horse racing, not every event is the same. Experts are also analyzing the distance and course wins just because horses have different performances on different courses. Finding a pattern where the horse has the best performance is also a good indicator of being a favorite in a horse racing event.

Jockey and Trainer Data

Although experts consider that jockey and trainer data doesn’t hold as much value as previously covered points when indicating a favorite in a horse race, it is still worth checking on them. Some trainers or jockeys have history at certain distances, tracks, or with individual horses.

It is a good idea to examine the history of the trainer and jockey and find out the relations with the horse or whether or not they had previous success in the same formation.

Favorites For This Year’s Kentucky Derby

These are some of the crucial information experts consider when choosing the favorite in a big event like the Kentucky Derby. Since we are weeks away from the biggest horse race this year, it is worth reflecting on this year’s favorite horses.

Epicenter 6/1
Messier 6/1
Forbidden Kingdom 7/1
Smile Happy 10/1
White Abarrio 10/1
Cyberknife 12/1

If you still haven’t made your betting decision, it is a good idea to take a look at some of the contenders and try to spot the favorite horses with the biggest chance of winning the race.